BTC 66K–70K Volatility in Progress — Precise Weekly Price Analysis

2026-02-1509:16

Hotcoin 研究院

2026-02-15 09:16

Hotcoin 研究院

2026-02-15 09:16

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Hotcoin Research | February 9th — February 13th, 2026

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.36 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.3% ($1.37 trillion). The market capitalization of stablecoins is $307.9 billion, up 2.16% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.66%.

Of the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, half rose, and half fell. Specifically: BTC fell 1.99% in 7 days, ETH fell 1.5% in 7 days, SOL fell 3.64% in 7 days, PIPPIN rose 229.46% in 7 days, and H rose 56.35% in 7 days.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $358.9 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $161 million.

Market Forecast (February 16th — February 22nd):

BTC: $66,000–70,000
ETH: $1,880–2,120
SOL: $75–100

Currently, the RSI is 55.7 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 8 (extreme fear, lower than last week), and the Altcoin Season Index is 45 (neutral, higher than last week).

Following a strong rebound triggered by positive regulatory news this Friday, market sentiment has been boosted in the short term, but significant technical resistance remains. Next week, the market is expected to digest positive news and macroeconomic data, initially consolidating before choosing a direction. Therefore, a flexible strategy is needed: controlled position sizes, a focus on buying low and selling high, and close monitoring of breakout signals from macroeconomic data.

The market will not operate independently next week; the following variables should be closely monitored:

Macroeconomic Data: Monitor U.S. economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials; any hints about interest rate policy will affect risk assets.
ETF Fund Flows: Whether Friday’s rebound can attract institutional funds back is key to its sustainability. If ETFs continue to experience significant outflows next week, the rebound may falter.
Regulatory Developments: The US Treasury Secretary’s speech this week was a major positive; subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of Congressional discussions on the “Clarity Act for Digital Asset Markets.”

Knowing Now

Weekly Highlights

February 8th: Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed details of next Tuesday’s White House crypto meeting. This meeting is the second in a series and remains at the staff level; CEOs of various companies will not be invited, but senior policy personnel from various banks will attend.
On February 8th, Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), posted an article after his Trend Research liquidated its ETH holdings, stating, “First, I acknowledge that the market cycle remains valid. Despite strong US stock performance and the coexistence of crypto treasuries (DAT) and ETFs, consensus in the crypto world has not been broken, and the market remains easily manipulated. However, entering a bear market is also the best time to position ourselves, just as we profited from doing so during the previous bear market. The future is bright; I remain optimistic about the next bull market opportunity in the industry and will continue to work hard to build. Pessimists are right, optimists win.”
Yi Lihua’s Trend Research completely liquidated its ETH holdings, resulting in a total loss of approximately $688 million.
On February 8th, according to Etherscan data, the number of transactions on the Ethereum network reached 2,896,853, a record high.
On February 10th, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published an article this morning, updating his systematic thinking on the intersection of Ethereum and artificial intelligence. He emphasized that AGI should not be pursued in an “indiscriminate acceleration” manner, but rather the values of cryptography and AI should be deeply integrated to build an AI future that is conducive to human freedom, security, and decentralized collaboration.
On February 9th, even after Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $70,000, its derivatives market continued to send warning signals. Traders maintained defensive positions, with almost no signs of new long positions.
On February 9th, even after Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $70,000, its derivatives market continued to send warning signals. Traders maintained defensive positions, with little sign of new long positions being placed.
On February 11th, LayerZero announced the launch of its Layer-1 blockchain network, Zero, according to official announcements.
On February 11th, CoinDesk reported that Le Jae-won, CEO of the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb, stated that, due to a lack of proper internal controls, the platform mistakenly transferred more than $40 billion in Bitcoin to customer accounts, even though the intended amount was only about $428. Most of the funds have been recovered.
Bithumb admitted that a serious internal system vulnerability caused the erroneous transfer of approximately $40 billion in Bitcoin to customers. This error caused a 17% drop in Bitcoin’s price on the Bithumb platform and prompted an investigation by South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service, while also exposing deficiencies in the exchange’s asset matching and account segregation controls. Although Bithumb has recovered most of its Bitcoin, 1,786 Bitcoins sold before the account was frozen remain unrecovered, exacerbating lawmakers’ concerns about weak regulation.

Macroeconomic News

On February 10th, US retail sales for December were 0% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%.
On February 11th, the US unemployment rate for January was 4.3%, slightly lower than the expected 4.40% and the previous month’s figure.
On February 12th, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7th were 227,000, above the expected 222,000, and the previous week’s figure was revised from 231,000 to 232,000.
On February 13th, the US January unadjusted CPI annual rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, a new low since May 2025, below the market median expectation of 2.5%.
On February 13th, according to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 8.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate was 91.6%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from February 9th to February 13th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $358.9 million. As of February 13th, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.909 billion and currently holds $10.713 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.522 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $90.458 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $161 million.

Looking Towards the Future

Industry Conferences

ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 17th to 21st.
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30th to April 2nd, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe’s largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from April 20th to 23rd, 2026.

Project Progress

BitOrigin, a Bitcoin mining company, has extended its compliance deadline to February 16, 2026. If BitOrigin fails to regain compliance by this date, Nasdaq will notify BitOrigin in writing of its delisting.
Upbit will delist Groestlcoin (GRS). Withdrawals will still be supported for 34 days from the date trading support ends (until February 19, 2026).

Important Events

Belgian bank KBC announced that starting the week of February 16, it will offer cryptocurrency trading services to private investors through its online investment platform, Bolero.
At 21:30 on February 19, the US will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending February 14.
At 21:30 on February 20, the US will release the year-over-year rate for the December core PCE price index.

Token Unlocking

Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on February 15th, worth approximately $5.97 million, representing 4.61% of the circulating supply
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on February 15th, worth approximately $4.12 million, representing 1.03% of the circulating supply
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on February 16th, worth approximately $10.08 million, representing 1.82% of the circulating supply
YZY (YZY) will unlock 62.5 million tokens on February 17th, worth approximately $20.96 million, representing 17.24% of the circulating supply
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on February 20th, worth approximately $48.33 million, representing 5.98% of the circulating supply
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 32.53 million tokens on February 20th, valued at approximately $10.25 million, representing 10.64% of the circulating supply

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research arm of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Research Reports”; our exclusive column, “Hotcoin Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), helps you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also address your daily investment needs, interpreting key topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate market cycles and seize valuable Web3 opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk-management framework to protect their funds.