Hotcoin Research | December 8–12, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.13 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7% at $1.83 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $309.1 billion, an increase of 0.49% in the last 7 days, marking three consecutive weeks of positive growth. USDT accounts for 60.21% of this market capitalization.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a small number rose. Specifically: BTC fell 0.14% in 7 days, ETH rose 2.34%, SOL fell 1.52%, M rose 25.79%, and ZEC rose 16.26%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $286.2 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $209 million.

Market Forecast (December 15th — December 21st):

Currently, the RSI is 46.17 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 28 (higher than last week, generally in the fear range), and the Altcoins Index is 35 (neutral, slightly lower than last week).

Observations show that after the Fed announced its rate cut on December 11th, the market reaction was muted except for gold. This is not due to a single reason, but rather because the market had already fully priced in the 25 basis point rate cut before the meeting, leading to profit-taking after the positive news was fully priced in. Furthermore, Powell’s hawkish remarks, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainty, put pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are expected to remain range-bound next week.

BTC Core Range: $86,000–94,200

ETH Core Range: $3,100–3,400

SOL Core Range: $125–145

For short-term traders: It is recommended not to chase highs near the above key resistance levels (e.g., BTC $94,200, ETH $3,400, SOL $140). Wait for a clear price breakout or a pullback after encountering resistance, then test the price with a small position near key support levels (e.g., BTC $86,000, ETH $3,190, SOL $125). Always set a narrow stop-loss.

For medium-term swing traders: Reduce trading frequency and patiently wait for the price to break out of the current “December opening range”. Consider using a “phased entry” strategy, that is, gradually establishing small positions in strong support areas (e.g., SOL $120-$130), using a break below the support as a stop-loss or wait-and-see signal. At the same time, closely monitor the sustainability of US ETF fund flows, as this is an important indicator of market sentiment.

Knowing the Present:

A Week in Review

1. On December 7th, Matt Huang, co-founder of crypto investment firm Paradigm, posted on social media, “I don’t know who needs to hear this, but this is the ‘Netscape moment’ or ‘iPhone moment’ for cryptocurrency. It’s operating on an unprecedented scale, larger than we ever imagined, accelerating at both the institutional and cypherpunk levels.”

2. On December 10th, the draft of the CLARITY Act is expected to be released this week, with hearings and a vote next week.

3. On December 10th, according to Bloomberg, SpaceX is expected to IPO in mid-to-late 2026, with a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion and fundraising well over $30 billion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history. Specific timelines will depend on market conditions;

4. On December 9th, as the year-end approaches, Wall Street banks are bracing for rising pressure in the money market. Analysts say this could prompt the Federal Reserve to weigh measures to rebuild liquidity buffers in the $12.6 trillion market;

5. On December 10th, according to Decrypt, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at the Blockchain Association’s annual policy summit that many types of ICOs should be considered non-securities transactions and therefore not within the SEC’s regulatory scope;

6. On December 12th, the Southern District of New York federal court sentenced Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon to 15 years in prison for fraud and other offenses in the Terra and Luna token crashes.

Macroeconomic News

1. On December 11, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut at its meeting, in line with market expectations. This brings the total rate cuts this year to 75 basis points.

2. On December 11, initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, the highest level since the week ending September 6, 2025. This figure was higher than the expected 220,000 and the previous week’s 191,000.

3. On December 12, according to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January was 24.8%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from December 8th to December 12th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $286.2 million; as of December 12th, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $25.039 billion, currently holding $15.061 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.093 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $120.07 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $209 million.

Future Outlook

Project Progress

1. Yala announced that all native BTC under the institutional model will be withdrawn from the Yala protocol. A complete redemption plan and timeline will be announced on December 15th;

2. The deBridge Q2 airdrop claim window will close on December 19th;

3. PayPal launched a Bitcoin lottery for US users, with the deadline being December 21st.

Key Events

1. December 16, 21:30: US will release November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (in thousands);

2. December 18, 20:00: UK will release its central bank interest rate decision (ending December 18);

3. December 18, 21:15: Eurozone will release its European Central Bank deposit facility rate (ending December 18);

4. December 18, 21:30: US will release November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate and initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending December 13;

5. December 19, 23:00: US November core PCE price index year-on-year rate.

Token Unlocking

1. Connex (CONX) will unlock 1.32 million tokens on December 15th, worth approximately $21.35 million, representing 1.61% of the circulating supply;

2. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on December 15th, worth approximately $14.15 million, representing 5.07% of the circulating supply;

3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on December 16th, worth approximately $18.98 million, representing 1.9% of the circulating supply;

4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on December 17th, worth approximately $5.64 million, representing 3.26% of the circulating supply;

5. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on December 18th, worth approximately $2.93 million, representing 4.79% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into actionable tools. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports,” we dissect market dynamics for you. Leveraging our exclusive “Hotcoin Selects” feature — which employs a dual-screening process by both AI and human experts — we help you pinpoint high-potential assets and minimize trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you directly via livestreams to decipher hot topics and forecast market trends. We believe that our supportive engagement and expert guidance can empower more investors to navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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