Hotcoin Research｜December 1–5, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Market Overview

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.05 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 58.7% at $1.79 trillion. The stablecoin market cap stands at $308.2 billion, up 0.85% over the past 7 days, marking the second consecutive week of growth. USDT accounts for 60.2% of the stablecoin market.

Among the top 200 assets on CoinMarketCap, most declined over the week. BTC fell 3%, ETH 4.38%, SOL 4.03%, while a few outliers such as LUNC (+62.7%) and CHEEMS (+11.15%) recorded gains.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $88.1 million in net outflows, and US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $65.6 million in net outflows this week.

Market Forecast (December 8–14)

Key sentiment indicators currently remain neutral:

• RSI: 42.7
• Fear & Greed Index: 22 (in the fear range, lower than last week)
• Altcoins Index: 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week)

Market Sentiment

The market is at a critical stage of structural repair and trend confirmation. Following several weeks of panic-driven sell-offs, the recent rebound has mainly been supported by improved macro liquidity expectations, including rising confidence in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. Short covering has also contributed to upside pressure.

However, despite the rebound, the broader trend still lacks confirmation. A strong bullish continuation will require breakouts above key resistance zones to validate sustained upside momentum.

Key Technical Levels

Based on current technical outlooks, Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken below key “bull-bear dividing lines.” The short-to-medium term view has shifted from bullish to neutral, or even slightly bearish in some sectors. To resume a strong upward trend, markets must reclaim the following price ranges:

• BTC: $90,000–$95,000
• ETH: $3,000–$3,500
• SOL: $130–$150

Risks to Monitor

The December 10th Fed decision is the primary market catalyst this week. Market pricing implies an 82.8% probability of a rate cut. Any unexpected shift in policy stance could introduce heightened volatility.

Investors should remain alert to fragile rallies, where price increases occur alongside declining trading volumes. This dynamic suggests insufficient buying strength and may lead to a pullback if trend confirmation fails.

Stay Informed

Weekly Highlights

1. Bloomberg reported that prediction market platform Kalshi faces a class-action lawsuit alleging unlicensed sports-betting operations and misleading statements about its market-making activities (Dec 1).
2. White House Director of Crypto & AI David Sacks publicly challenged a New York Times investigation into alleged misconduct, stating that the claims lack evidence (Dec 1).
3. According to Lookonchain, Circle issued another 500M USDC, bringing its total issuance over the past month to 10B USDC (Dec 5).
4. President Trump stated he may announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair early next year. He noted Treasury Secretary Bessant declined consideration and only one candidate remains. Trump again criticized Powell and referenced comments by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who suggested Powell should cut rates (Dec 3).
5. Vanguard reversed its anti-crypto stance, while Bank of America recommended investors allocate 1–4% of portfolios to digital assets (Dec 4).
6. Cointelegraph reported that the official PEPE website was hacked and redirected users to malicious links (Dec 4).
7. Meta is reportedly considering a 30% budget cut to its Metaverse division in 2025; shares closed +3.4% on the news (Dec 5).
8. The China Internet Finance Association, together with other departments, issued a new warning against illegal virtual-currency activities — the fourth major notice issued since 2019 (Dec 5).
9. The U.S. CFTC approved listed spot crypto products for trading on registered futures exchanges for the first time. Binomial Exchange plans to launch a CFTC-regulated leveraged retail spot trading platform on Dec 8 (Dec 5).
10. The Ethereum mainnet activated its 17th major upgrade “Fusaka,” moving the network to a twice-yearly hard-fork development cadence (Dec 4).
11. Binance founder CZ stated he will shift his focus to the BNB Chain ecosystem and advisory roles to governments. Co-founder He Yi has officially become Binance Co-CEO (Dec 5).

Macroeconomic News

1. U.S. November ADP employment data showed a 32,000 decrease, compared with expectations for a 10,000 decrease and the prior reading of 42,000 (Dec 3).
2. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 fell to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. The market expected 220,000, while the previous figure was revised from 216,000 → 218,000 (Dec 4).
3. U.S. core PCE (September YoY) came in at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%, and unchanged from the previous 2.9% reading (Dec 5).
4. According to the Fed interest rate monitor, markets assign an 82.8% probability to a 25bps rate cut in December, indicating expectations of policy easing remain high (Dec 6).

ETFs

According to market data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $88.1 million from December 1–5. As of December 5:

• GBTC (Grayscale): total historical outflows $25.001B; current holdings $14.964B
• IBIT (BlackRock): current holdings $69.453B
• Total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs: $117.67B

U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs registered $65.6 million in net outflows over the same period.

Future Ahead

Event Announcements

1. Bitcoin MENA will take place on December 8–9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).
2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11–13.

Project Progress

1. Chainlink: The first quarterly Rewards distribution period ends on December 9 at 22:00. Participants must allocate Cubes within the distribution window to claim tokens during the claim period starting December 16.
2. Aster: The S4 buyback program begins on December 10. 60–90% of fees generated during S4 will be used for token buybacks.

Important Events

1. The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 03:00 on December 11 (UTC+8).
2. Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 will be released at 21:30 on December 11 (UTC+8).
3. The Fed will publish Q3 2025 U.S. household financial data in the Flow of Funds report at 01:00 on December 12 (UTC+8).

Token Unlocking

1. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161M tokens on December 9, worth approximately $7.43M, representing 1.62% of circulating supply.
2. CARV (CARV) will unlock 16.11M tokens on December 10, worth approximately $2.16M, representing 1.61% of circulating supply.
3. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44B tokens on December 10, worth approximately $12.3M, representing 2% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

Connect with Us

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