With Extreme Fear in the Market: Who’s Accumulating the Dip? Hotcoin Research | November 24–28, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.09 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5% (approximately $1.8 trillion). The market capitalization of stablecoins is $306.1 billion, an increase of 1.08% over the past 7 days. Stablecoin supply reversed this week, showing positive growth, with Circle leading the expansion, while USDT accounts for 60.31% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined, with only a few gaining. Specifically: BTC fell 0.78% in 7 days, SOL fell 2.23%, SAHARA fell 12.05%, AIOZ fell 8.09%, and PI fell 7.85%. After the recent pullback, the broader crypto market has begun to recover, though the improvement is still limited.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $70.5 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $312 million.

Market Forecast (December 1–7):

The RSI is 48.71 (neutral), the Fear & Greed Index is 27 (fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 37 (neutral) — all higher than last week.

• BTC Core Range: $85,000–$95,000
• ETH Core Range: $2,800–$3,300
• SOL Core Range: $126–$156

Market Sentiment:

The market has moved past the extreme fear stage and is slowly stabilizing. However, due to four-year cycle dynamics and whale selling, prices have not formed a V-shaped recovery. Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH, and US spot ETFs posted positive inflows this week. “Wood Sister” (a well-known crypto investor) is buying the dip in Coinbase, Circle, and other crypto-related stocks.

The next major catalyst is the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 10. Market expectations for a rate cut remain high. A rate cut would typically improve liquidity and potentially boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, an unchanged policy could trigger volatility. Currently, the probability of a December rate cut is 82.8%.

Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for December 4, which may impact short-term price action. Following the recent Upbit hack, SOL faced sell-pressure, but net inflows into US spot ETFs have offered some support.

For conservative investors:

When the market is in a high-fear phase, it may offer opportunities for medium- to long-term positioning. Consider buying in small batches near key support levels to lower your average entry price rather than entering at once.

For aggressive traders:

Given current volatility, consider small long positions near support and reducing exposure or shorting near resistance levels. Always set stop-loss orders for every trade.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week’s Major Events

1. On November 24, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that New York Fed President Williams hinted at a potential rate cut in December, reversing previous expectations. The market currently prices in a 70% probability of a December rate cut. The Fed will enter its blackout period on November 29, and Powell has no scheduled public appearances before then, making Williams’s remarks the final influential signal before the meeting.
2. On November 24, U.S. equities rose in early trading, with the Nasdaq up more than 1.5% and the S&P 500 up 1%. Major crypto-related stocks also gained.
3. On November 25, the White House announced new efforts to strengthen U.S. scientific research capabilities through advanced artificial intelligence. President Trump signed an executive order launching the “Genesis Mission”, directing the Department of Energy and other research institutions to accelerate AI deployment.
4. Michael Kratsios, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, described it as “the largest consolidation of federal research resources since the Apollo program.”
5. On November 25, JPMorgan Chase closed the personal accounts of Strike CEO Jack Mallers, reigniting concerns in the U.S. crypto industry about a new wave of “debanking.”
6. On November 27, major cryptocurrencies saw a strong overnight rebound. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin surged back to $90,355, a 24-hour increase of 3.83%, marking its first return to the $90,000 level in a week.
7. On November 27, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino responded to S&P’s rating downgrade, saying, “We are proud to be disliked by you.” Ardoino criticized legacy rating agencies for repeatedly labeling collapsing institutions as “investment-grade” and argued that Tether has built an over-capitalized, non-toxic, consistently profitable business model that challenges the traditional financial system.
8. On November 27, according to DL News, South Korean financial regulators urged Bithumb to suspend its Tether Markets service, which supports USDT-based trading for Bitcoin and nine major altcoins. All ten assets remain tradeable in the Korean Won (KRW) market.
9. On November 27, Upbit detected abnormal withdrawals, with approximately 54 billion KRW (~$36 million) worth of Solana-related assets transferred to an unknown wallet. Upbit confirmed it will cover all customer losses.
10. On November 28, YZi Labs Management Ltd., a major shareholder of CEA Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: BNC), submitted a preliminary consent statement to the SEC seeking shareholder approval to expand the company’s board by adding highly qualified directors.

Macroeconomic News

1. On November 26, the number of U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 came in at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000.
2. On November 28, according to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.8%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from November 24 to November 28, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $70.5 million. As of November 28, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen a total outflow of $24.971 billion, now holding $15.21 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.611 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $119.682 billion.

U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $312 million over the same period.

Future Ahead

Event Announcements

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held December 8–9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).
2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held December 11–13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. The Aster Stage 3 airdrop checker opens on December 1, 2025, with airdrop collection starting on December 15.
2. FTX’s fourth round of compensation is expected to begin in January 2026, with eligibility confirmation likely due in December.
3. Spain’s Ministry of Economy and Digital Transformation announced that the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework will be implemented nationally in December 2025. All 27 EU member states must adopt MiCA by July 2026.
4. Sonnet BioTherapeutics has postponed its merger vote to December 2. The plan is to merge with Rorschach I LLC to form Hyperliquid Strategies and advance its HYPE reserve strategy.
5. Aztec’s AZTEC token sale will take place December 2–6, 2025, using Uniswap’s new Continuous Liquidation Auction Protocol (CCA). The starting price reflects an FDV of $350 million, about 75% lower than the implied valuation from its latest equity financing.

Key Events

1. December 3: U.S. November ADP employment figures (thousands).
2. December 4: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (thousands).
3. December 5: U.S. September core PCE price index (YoY).

Token Unlocks

1. Audiera (BEAT) will unlock 21.25 million tokens on December 1, worth ~$20.26 million (2.12% of circulating supply).
2. Lagrange (LA) will unlock 12.7 million tokens on December 4, worth ~$5 million (1.27% of circulating supply).
3. MYX Finance (MYX) will unlock 30.37 million tokens on December 6, worth ~$77.5 million (3.04% of circulating supply).
4. Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on December 7, worth ~$5.47 million (1.13% of circulating supply).

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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