Spot ETFs See Largest Weekly Outflows Amid Extreme Market Fear; Seven U.S. States Pass BTC Strategic Reserve Plans | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: February 24 — February 28, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.8 trillion, with BTC dominance at 59.74%, amounting to $1.68 trillion. Stablecoin market capitalization stands at $224.1 billion, marking a 0.77% decline over the past seven days, with USDT making up 63.6% of the stablecoin sector.

This week,BTC has been on a downward trend this week, currently priced at $84,020. ETH followed a similar trajectory, now trading at $2,226. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined, with a few exceptions:

• RAY: 7-day decline of 45.22%
• TAO: 7-day decline of 27.15%
• MELANIA: 7-day decline of 32.18%
• PNUT: 7-day increase of 72.44%
• VANA: 7-day increase of 41.04%

U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $2.146 billion, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a $305.3 million net outflow. As of February 28, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 20, reflecting heightened fear compared to last week. Market sentiment over the past week was as follows:

• 3 days of extreme fear
• 2 days of fear
• 2 days of neutral sentiment

Market Forecast

This week’s significant market downturn has been driven by multiple factors, including celebrity token fraud, rising U.S. tariffs, a $1.4 billion Bybit hack, and impending large-scale institutional SOL unlocks. Stablecoins have seen negative growth, while U.S. spot ETFs recorded their largest weekly outflow, with fear levels briefly plunging to 10 — the lowest since the 2022 Luna collapse. However, amid extreme market fear, major crypto whales, including Bitdeer, have increased their BTC holdings.

Positive Developments:

• U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plans: 5 states rejected, 7 states approved, 18 states under consideration
• U.S. January PCE Inflation Index met expectations
• SEC settlements with multiple crypto firms
• Over 81.2% probability of a U.S. Fed rate cut in June

Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bull market remains intact, with BTC still on track to reach new highs this year.

Key Events of the Week

Security & Regulatory Developments:

1. Feb 23 — SlowMist revealed that the Bybit hack was linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group.
2. Feb 25 — Bernstein: Liquidity may return to DeFi, GameFi, and NFTs as Trump eases regulations.
3. Feb 25 — Citadel Securities plans to enter crypto, betting on Trump’s support.
4. Feb 26 — SEC dropped its investigation into Uniswap Labs.
5. Feb 26 — Aya Miyaguchi promoted to Ethereum Foundation Chair.
6. Feb 26 — Ohio’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act advanced in committee.
7. Feb 26 — Solana’s SIMD-0228 proposal opened for voting, adjusting SOL issuance based on staking.
8. Feb 27 — Trump announced 25% tariffs on EU goods, raising market fears.
9. Feb 27 — Texas’ Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act advanced to the Senate.
10. Feb 27 — Analysts remain bullish on Solana, neutral on BTC and ETH despite high fear levels.
11. Feb 28 — Bybit hackers laundered 50% of stolen ETH (~$614M) via THORChain.
12. Feb 28 — SEC dropped civil enforcement action against Coinbase.

Macroeconomic Developments

1. Feb 18 — Australia cut interest rates to 4.10%, first cut since 2020.
2. Feb 27 — SEC & Tron (Justin Sun) filed for a lawsuit pause, hinting at settlement.
3. Feb 28 — U.S. January Core PCE Inflation: 2.6%, in line with expectations.
4. Feb 28 — SEC confirmed meme coins are not securities.
5. Feb 28 — CME to launch Solana (SOL) futures on March 17.
6. March 1 — SEC delayed Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF approval.

ETF Market Overview

• Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Outflow: $2.146B (Feb 24–28)
• Total BTC ETF Market Cap: $99.12B
• Grayscale (GBTC) Outflow: $22.249B (Current Holdings: $16.567B)
• BlackRock (IBIT) Holdings: $48.728B
• Ethereum Spot ETF Net Outflow: $305.3M

Upcoming Events

1. ETHDenver 2025 — Feb 23 — Mar 2, Denver, U.S.
2. Crypto Expo Europe — Mar 2–3, Bucharest, Romania
3. Digital Asset Summit 2025 — Mar 18–20, New York, U.S.
4. Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 — Mar 30 — Apr 5, Bangkok, Thailand
5. Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2025 — Apr 6–9, Hong Kong

Project Updates

1. Rivalz Network airdrop appeal deadline — Mar 5
2. Ethereum Sepolia Testnet Pectra upgrade activation — Mar 5
3. Kaito AI opens ANIME claim for eligible holders — until Mar 9

Major Events & Unlocks

Token Unlocks:

• Sui (SUI) — Mar 1: 22.97M tokens ($78.77M), 0.74% of circulating supply
• ZetaChain (ZETA) — Mar 1: 44.26M tokens ($14.73M), 6.48% of circulating supply
• Alchemy Pay (ACH) — Mar 7: 116M tokens ($3.74M), 1.17% of circulating supply

Notable Events:

1. FTX Bankruptcy Auction — 11.2M SOL ($2.06B) to be unlocked on Mar 1
2. Crypto Scam Conviction — A dual-national (China/SKN) to be sentenced in the U.S. on Mar 3 for a $73.6M pig-butchering scheme
3. DMM Bitcoin — All accounts and assets will be transferred to SBI VC Trade by Mar 8 following a $304M hack in 2024

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Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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