I. Introduction

During his 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump branded himself as “the president who champions innovation and Bitcoin,” unveiling a series of groundbreaking cryptocurrency policy commitments.These proposals marked a sharp reversal from his previous anti-crypto stance in his first term. Trump emphasized his goal to transform the U.S. into the “global cryptocurrency capital” and introduced multiple policy proposals to support crypto development.
This shift was not only politically motivated, aiming to secure crypto industry votes, but also reflected a strategic consideration of the U.S.’s global dollar dominance — strengthening the U.S. dollar’s hegemony through cryptocurrency. This article systematically reviews Trump’s crypto policy commitments, analyzes the progress and challenges in their implementation, and discusses how his domestic and foreign policies may impact the crypto market.

II. Overview of Trump’s Crypto Policy Promises

1. Top Ten Crypto Policy Promises

During his 2024 campaign, Trump made several promises aimed at supporting and promoting cryptocurrencies, focusing on the following ten core areas:
1) Establishing a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Trump proposed incorporating Bitcoin into the U.S. sovereign reserves, leveraging Bitcoin seized by federal authorities as an initial reserve and setting annual acquisition targets.This would help the U.S. dominate the global digital economy and create new avenues for national wealth growth.
2) Firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler: Trump criticized SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s “enforcement-style regulation” for stifling innovation and promised to remove him on day one. He advocated for appointing crypto-friendly regulators to foster industry growth.
3) Blocking Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Development: Trump warned that CBDCs pose a threat to individual liberties and vowed to permanently prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar.He argued that privately issued cryptocurrencies should play a larger role in the financial system.
4) Supporting Stablecoin Development: Trump proposed a relaxed regulatory framework to allow stablecoins to access the Federal Reserve’s payment system and become tools for international trade settlement. He believed stablecoins would enhance payment system efficiency and reduce cross-border transaction costs.
5) Becoming a Bitcoin Mining Powerhouse: Through tax incentives, energy subsidies, and technological support, Trump aimed to attract global mining companies to the U.S., strengthening America’s competitiveness in Bitcoin mining and boosting the U.S. position in the global crypto ecosystem.
6) Defending Self-Custody Rights: Trump advocated for legislation ensuring individuals’ right to control their private keys, opposing restrictions on self-custody wallets and supporting the freedom to control personal digital assets without government or institutional interference.
7) Abolishing SAB 121 Accounting Rules: Trump believed the current accounting rules unfairly burden crypto businesses and promised to alleviate the financial burden on crypto companies, improving the industry’s competitiveness.
8) Ending “Operation Choke Point 2.0”: Trump promised to stop regulatory agencies from limiting crypto businesses’ access to banking services, ensuring that crypto companies can fairly access financial services.
9) Pardon Ross Ulbricht: Trump expressed the possibility of pardoning Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, as a symbolic gesture of supporting the libertarian values of the crypto community.
10) Establishing a Cryptocurrency Advisory Council: Trump planned to create an advisory council to develop transparent regulatory frameworks and promote the integration of crypto and traditional finance. He called for collaboration between government and industry experts to create policies that protect investors while encouraging innovation.

2. Reasons Behind Trump’s Shift in Stance

Trump’s position on cryptocurrency has shifted dramatically from “strong skepticism” to “active endorsement”. Several key factors underpin this transformation:

1) Economic Strategy: Strengthening the Dollar’s Dominance

The U.S. has long benefited from the dollar’s status as the global reserve and settlement currency. However, the trend of de-dollarization and the shift to diversified payment systems are accelerating globally. Stablecoins, many of which are tied to the dollar, provide a new way to maintain the dollar’s global dominance. By tying stablecoins to U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar reserves, the U.S. can extend its financial hegemony on the international stage.

2)Political Strategy: Gaining Support from Voters and Capital

With the explosive growth of the crypto industry in recent years, the number of crypto holders has increased significantly, especially among younger voters and tech workers, where crypto has become a new trend. In the 2024 election cycle, political donations to candidates exceeded $200 million. Trump wisely recognized the importance of this emerging force, and the funding and technological resources from crypto companies could also provide significant support for his campaign.

3)Personal and Business Interests: Promoting Trump Family Assets

Aside from political and national strategic considerations, Trump’s family has personal interests in the crypto world. The Trump family-backed WLFI project has started buying and holding Bitcoin, ETH, WBTC, ONDO, TRX, LINK, AAVE, and other digital assets. They also launched a token, “Trump Coin” ($TRUMP), which at one point saw its market cap exceed $15 billion.

Regardless of the reasons, promoting relaxed crypto policies during his campaign would indirectly increase the value of the Trump family’s assets and open up wider opportunities for future business ventures.

III. Progress and Resistance in Trump’s Crypto Policy Implementation

1. Measures Already Implemented

Changes in Regulatory Leadership: Gary Gensler, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), resigned on January 20, 2025. Trump appointed crypto-friendly Paul Atkins to lead the SEC, shifting its approach to “guidance-based regulation.” Additionally, Trump plans to nominate Brian Quintenz, policy head at a16z and former CFTC commissioner, to become the new Chairman of the CFTC.
Executive Order on Cryptocurrency: On January 24, 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a cross-departmental working group to coordinate the development of a federal regulatory framework and banning the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
Abolishment of SAB 121: On January 2025, the SEC repealed the SAB 121 accounting rule, easing the financial burden on crypto custodial platforms.
State-level Bitcoin Reserve Pilots: Several states in the U.S. have proposed or passed legislation to create Bitcoin strategic reserves, allowing state treasuries to allocate a portion of their budgets to Bitcoin.

2. Ongoing Policies

National Bitcoin Reserve Bill: Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act,” proposing the purchase of one million Bitcoin over the next five years, subject to Congressional budget approval. This bill faces bipartisan concerns about the volatility risk associated with Bitcoin.
Stablecoin Regulatory Framework: The U.S. Treasury, along with stablecoin issuers, has initiated the “Payment Stablecoin Regulatory Standards Program,” aiming to establish an international payment framework within five years. However, traditional banks are expected to oppose stablecoins disrupting existing payment networks.
Mining Support Policies: The “Bitcoin Energy and Technology Innovation Act” has entered the legislative process, proposing tax breaks for green mining initiatives. However, there is ongoing debate over grid capacity and the funding sources for subsidies.

3. Major Resistance and Uncertainty

Legislative Delays: Federal policies on Bitcoin reserves and mining subsidies require Congressional approval. The Republican Party holds only a slight majority in the Senate, and Democratic lawmakers criticize these proposals as “fiscal recklessness.”
Legal Challenges: Pardoning Ross Ulbricht could spark public backlash, as his life sentence involves charges related to drug trafficking and money laundering. The legal process is complex.
Market Volatility Risk: If the national Bitcoin reserve plan is implemented on a large scale, Bitcoin price fluctuations could worsen the fiscal deficit. The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 reached $1.8 trillion, an increase of $139 billion from the previous year.
International Coordination Issues: Trump’s stance against CBDCs conflicts with the EU’s MiCA regulations and China’s promotion of the digital yuan, potentially leading to fragmentation in the cross-border payment system.

IV. Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Legislation in U.S. States

Source: LegiScan

As of February 11, 2025, at least 27 U.S. states are involved in the Bitcoin reserve legislative race, aiming to diversify investments to combat inflation and enhance fiscal resilience.

1. States That Have Passed or Are Close to Approving Legislation

1) Utah: On January 28, 2025, Utah’s House of Representatives passed HB230, allowing 5% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, high-market-cap crypto assets, and stablecoins. If passed by the Senate, Utah will become the first state to officially establish a Bitcoin reserve.
2) Arizona: Senate Bill SB1025 has passed the Senate Finance Committee and is awaiting a vote in the House. If approved, Arizona could follow Utah in establishing a Bitcoin reserve.
3) Pennsylvania: In November 2024, Pennsylvania proposed a bill allowing the state treasury to purchase Bitcoin with 10% (approximately $1 billion) of its general fund, positioning itself as an early mover on this legislation.

2. States with Bills Under Consideration

1) Texas: In December 2024, Texas proposed a bill allowing residents to donate to a state Bitcoin fund, requiring Bitcoin to be cold-stored for at least five years, and banning out-of-state transactions. The bill has not yet reached a final vote.
2) Ohio: Ohio has proposed two bills (including Bill 57) to establish a Bitcoin reserve fund and authorize the state treasurer to purchase Bitcoin. These bills are currently under legislative framework discussions.
3) Maryland: House Bill 1389 proposes purchasing Bitcoin using seized illegal gambling funds, with an expected effective date of October 2025.
4) Kentucky: House Bill 376 allows state funds to invest in digital assets valued over $750 billion (currently only Bitcoin qualifies), with a 10% investment cap.
5) Other states, including Florida, Alabama, New Hampshire, and South Dakota, have also proposed similar bills, though many are still in early legislative stages.

3. States Where Bills Have Failed or Encountered Resistance

1) North Dakota: House Bill 1184 was rejected due to more opposition votes (32 in favor, 57 against).
2) Wyoming: The bill did not pass through the legislative process, with specific reasons undisclosed.

4. Federal-Level Developments

Senator Cynthia Lummis has pushed the “U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act,” proposing the purchase of one million Bitcoin over five years (5% of total supply), supported by gold reserves or asset forfeiture funds. Despite a conservative stance from the Federal Reserve, Trump’s crypto-friendly policies may accelerate the federal legislative process.

Source: Polymarket

V. Impact of Trump’s Domestic and Foreign Policies on the Crypto Market

1. Tariff Policy and Trade War Risks

On February 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico (with a 10% tax on Canadian energy products). This policy is seen as a continuation of Trump’s “protectionist” trade stance, aimed at protecting U.S. domestic industries and increasing fiscal revenue.
1) Short-term Market Volatility: The announcement of Trump’s tariff policy triggered strong risk-off sentiment in the markets, with the crypto market responding swiftly. Bitcoin dropped over 6% within 24 hours, briefly falling below $94,000, while Ethereum saw a larger drop of 27%, reaching a low of around $2,100. The total liquidation amount exceeded $2 billion.
2) Long-term Dollar Liquidity Contraction: If the trade war escalates and leads to a U.S. debt sell-off (currently totaling $36 trillion), the crypto market may face pressure, aligning with other risk assets.

2. Bitcoin Reserve Collateralization and Volatility Risks

The Trump administration proposed incorporating Bitcoin into the U.S. strategic reserve assets (SBR), with plans for the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase Bitcoin to enhance economic resilience. Currently, the U.S. holds 207,000 Bitcoin (worth about $10.4 billion). If this policy is implemented, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” status could be strengthened, potentially boosting its valuation. However, the feasibility of this path is questionable. If Bitcoin is used as collateral for U.S. bonds, international creditors must recognize its value stability, but Bitcoin’s high volatility could undermine its credibility as collateral.

3. Stablecoin Circulation Mechanism and Compliance Risks

The Trump team hinted at reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s return through a closed-loop system involving “USD-stablecoins-U.S. Treasury bonds.” Currently, 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, with 80% of reserve assets invested in U.S. Treasury bonds, forming a cycle where “stablecoins buy U.S. Treasury bonds — U.S. Treasury bonds support USD credit — USD returns to the U.S.” If scaled up, this mechanism could deeply integrate the crypto market with the U.S. dollar system, potentially easing debt pressure. However, this system depends on stablecoin regulatory compliance. If the “21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act” is passed, it could clarify stablecoin classification and regulatory frameworks, providing a policy foundation for this cycle.

4. Payment System Fragmentation Under U.S.-China Tech Competition

China is accelerating the promotion of the digital yuan (DCEP) to expand its influence in cross-border payments. Meanwhile, the Trump administration firmly opposes Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and supports private stablecoins to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in payments. This ‘CBDC vs. Stablecoin’ battle could reshape global financial dynamics.

VI. Outlook and Conclusion: Opportunities and Risks

Trump’s new crypto policies have undoubtedly brought significant changes to the U.S. crypto industry, with his proposed reforms emphasizing a “strategic embrace” of the crypto market, marking a shift in the U.S. government’s stance on crypto assets. However, the actual effects and future development of these policies face numerous challenges.
Historical data shows that Trump’s promise fulfillment rate is only 31%. This low fulfillment rate suggests that the crypto industry should approach Trump’s policy commitments with caution. Whether Trump’s new crypto policies succeed depends on resolving three major contradictions:
1) Balancing Innovation and Risk: Trump’s new policies emphasize relaxed regulation, aiming to provide space for crypto innovation. However, excessive looseness could lead to another crisis like previous crashes. A dynamic regulatory framework is needed to balance innovation with risk, avoiding stifling technological development while ensuring market stability.
2) Conflict Between Political Promises and Legislative Reality: Trump’s grand visions, such as the Bitcoin reserve, must overcome political divisions and fiscal constraints in Congress. In the U.S. political environment, the differences between the two parties could significantly impact the progress of crypto policies. The implementation of these policies will face more political maneuvering, leading to greater uncertainty in the crypto market.
3) Conflict Between Dollar Hegemony and Decentralized Ideals: While private stablecoins may strengthen the U.S. dollar’s position, this approach conflicts with the crypto industry’s decentralized ethos. Decentralization is a core value in the crypto space, yet Trump’s policies might push further integration of the dollar into the crypto market, potentially challenging the industry’s “anti-censorship” spirit.

Overall, Trump’s crypto policies present unprecedented opportunities for the U.S. and global crypto markets, but the implementation and market reactions remain uncertain. For investors, it is crucial to be wary of policy reversals and market bubbles. The future of the crypto market depends on strengthening its technological foundations, such as Layer 2 scaling and ZK proofs, as well as more robust regulatory frameworks. These technologies and regulatory tools will help the market navigate through cyclical fluctuations and usher in the true “crypto civilization” era.

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