TRUMP and Other Celebrity Tokens Experience Severe Drain, Stablecoins Continue to Increase, Crypto Market Poised for Growth | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: January 20 — January 24, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.57 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.44%, or $2.05 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $215.6 billion, with a 7-day increase of 2.95%, with USDT making up 64.82%.
This week, BTC’s price has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $104,726, and ETH also experiencing range-bound movements, currently priced at $3,338.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have increased, while the majority have declined, including:

• TRUMP: 7-day increase of 426.7%
• RAY: 7-day increase of 40.1%
• XCN: 7-day increase of 368.2%
• VTHO: 7-day increase of 107.2%.

This week, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.603 billion, and U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF saw a net inflow of $139.4 million.
On January 24, the “Fear & Greed Index” stood at 75 (unchanged from last week), with 6 days of greed and 1 day of extreme greed.

Market Outlook

This week, celebrity tokens like TRUMP are draining liquidity severely, with most tokens in a downtrend. Stablecoins continue to grow, with the increase surpassing the previous two weeks. U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are seeing significant net inflows. While Trump has yet to issue additional executive orders on cryptocurrency, recent personnel appointments within regulatory agencies hint that ‘crypto regulation’ could be imminent. Popular sectors to watch include DeFi, and in-depth research reports can be found on “Hotcoin Web3 Research.”

Major Events in Review

1. January 19: “Trump Launches Cryptocurrency” content briefly entered the Top 2 on TikTok’s social leaderboard, gaining significant attention outside the crypto community.
2. January 20: Jito Labs Co-Founder Buffalu announced that their blockchain engine API was experiencing severe service degradation due to unprecedented load. While the Solana network continued to operate and process blocks, transactions through Jito Labs were affected. The engineering team worked for several hours to fix the issue, with updates to be provided once full service is restored.
3. January 21: Trump Family’s Crypto Project WLFI announced the purchase of multiple assets to celebrate Trump’s inauguration, including $47 million worth of ETH, wBTC, and more.
4. January 22: According to Bloomberg, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that stablecoin regulation is a top priority and that an executive order on cryptocurrency is expected soon. He also praised the selection of Mark Uyeda as the SEC’s acting chairman.
5. January 22: SEC acting chairman Mark Uyeda announced the formation of a new cryptocurrency working group to develop a clear and comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. Senior advisors Gabbert and Asher will lead the group.
6. January 22: Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, saying he had called the mother of Silk Road founder Ross William Ulbricht to announce the signing of a full and unconditional pardon for her son.
7. January 23: Market news reported that CME futures for XRP and SOL will launch on February 10, pending regulatory review.
8. January 22: Cow DAO released a proposal on Snapshot (CIP-61) regarding price improvement shares, income shares, and fees on the CoW Protocol, aiming to continue using price improvement as the primary revenue model while testing new strategies. If approved, this proposal will take effect on February 1, 2025.
9. January 23: Arbitrum and Azuki’s joint anime project, Animecoin, launched its ANIME airdrop check page, opening the claim process at 9:00 PM UTC+8.
10. January 24: Cointelegraph reported that Trump announced he would request an interest rate reduction.
11. January 24: CZ commented on X platform about U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis becoming the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee’s Digital Assets Subcommittee, stating that “U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves are almost confirmed, and crypto is once again advancing at a rapid pace.”

Macroeconomic Events

1. January 21: According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 99.5%, with a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.
2. January 21: The SEC issued a statement on Gary Gensler’s departure.
3. January 22: European Central Bank Governing Council Member Knot said that the barrier to another rate cut next week is minimal, and positive data confirms the path back to the target.
4. January 23: Japanese public company Remixpoint announced it had completed a new round of cryptocurrency investment, purchasing 31.27 BTC for 500 million JPY at an average price of 15.99 million JPY each. The total value of their crypto portfolio now stands at 8.789 billion JPY.
5. January 23: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 18 came in at 223,000, slightly above the expected 220,000 and previous week’s 217,000.
6. January 24: The SEC issued SAB 122, officially withdrawing the SAB 121 that blocked banks from custodianship of cryptocurrencies.
7. January 24: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.50%, representing the largest increase since 2007 and the highest rate since October 2008.

ETF Developments

From January 20 to January 24, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF saw net inflows of $1.603 billion. As of January 24, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.608 billion, holding $21.706 billion. IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $60.123 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs is $125.063 billion.
U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF saw net inflows of $139.4 million.

Looking Ahead:

Event Forecast

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025.
2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 23 to March 2, 2025.

Project Developments

1. Crypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial announced it will launch a CFTC-regulated derivatives clearing organization and stablecoin clearinghouse on January 30, 2025.
2. Ethereum L2 network Fuel will airdrop 150 million FUEL tokens, with the qualification review and claiming period from January 30 to March 2, 2025.
3. Soarchain will launch a group competition on January 30, 2025, where participants will be divided by nationality, with weekly metrics and rewards.
4. OneKey Card will discontinue services, with the service stopping on January 31, 2025.
5. Trump-backed NFT series launched the “Trump Bitcoin Digital Trading Card” using the Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin, with the first 160 NFTs available for claim through the Magic Eden NFT marketplace, deadline January 31, 2025.
6. ME Foundation announced that ME airdrop users need to complete wallet binding and claiming before February 1, 2025.

Key Events

1. Indian crypto exchange Mudrex paused withdrawals for compliance updates until January 28.
2. The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seeking industry feedback until March 31 on strengthening customer protections for crypto accounts, including requiring providers to compensate consumers for losses due to hacks or unauthorized transactions.
3. The revised UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 clarifies that crypto staking (e.g., Ethereum and Solana) is not considered part of “collective investment schemes,” effective January 31, 2025.
4. South Korea’s Ministry of Personnel Management has instructed all government agencies to reassess the implementation of restrictions on public servants holding cryptocurrencies, with a report due by January 31.

Token Unlocks

1. Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on January 27, worth about $9.02 million, accounting for 1.14% of circulating supply.
2. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 19.07 million tokens on January 28, worth about $9.39 million, accounting for 1.91% of circulating supply.
3. Conflux (CFX) will unlock 87.5 million tokens on February 2, worth about $13.14 million, accounting for 1.72% of circulating supply.

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Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes “Play to Earn Web3” tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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