Market Rebounds Influenced by CPI Data and Significant Net Inflows into U.S. Spot ETFs; AI Sector Shows Noticeable Recovery

Hotcoin Research Market Insights: January 13–17, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of now, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.5 trillion, with BTC dominance at 56.43%, equating to $1.98 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $208 billion, reflecting a 1.04% increase over the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 66.22%.

Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated a gradual upward trend this week, with a current price of $102,089, while Ethereum (ETH) also followed a similar pattern, priced at $3,423.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most tokens experienced gains, while a few declined. Notable 7-day gainers include XDC (+45.78%), FARTCOIN (+56.21%), XRP (+42.37%), and MORPHO (+36.97%).

This week, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.484 billion, while U.S. Ethereum Spot ETFs saw net inflows of $205 million. The Fear & Greed Index on January 17 reached 75, indicating “Greed,” up from last week.

Market Outlook

The market’s performance this week was primarily driven by U.S. CPI data, continued stablecoin growth, substantial inflows into U.S. spot ETFs, and the anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration. These factors resulted in significant overall market growth, with the AI sector experiencing a sharp rebound early in the week before correcting later.

Forecast: Market volatility is expected to increase next week due to potential policy announcements following Trump’s inauguration. Investors are advised to adopt prudent position management. Attention could be given to “pre-ETF” tokens.

Weekly Review of Major Events

1. Cryptocurrency Market Developments

1. January 12 — Glassnode data revealed a major shift in Bitcoin ownership trends. New investors (addresses holding BTC for less than 3 months) now account for 49.6% of network liquidity, indicating increasing market participation by fresh capital, while experienced investors reallocate holdings.
2. January 12 — Sunil, a representative of FTX creditors, disclosed the preliminary repayment timeline:

• Creditors with claims below $50,000 are expected to collectively receive $1.2 billion.
• Creditors must complete pre-distribution requirements by January 20.
• Initial repayments are projected to begin from February 25 to March 4.

3. January 13 — According to CloverPool data, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusted at block height 878,976, increasing by 0.61% to 110.45 T, a new all-time high. The 7-day average network hash rate is 776.91 EH/s, with the next difficulty adjustment predicted to rise 0.70% to 111.22 T.

4. January 14 — Japanese listed company Remixpoint increased its Bitcoin holdings by 33.34 BTC (approx. ¥500 million), raising its total holdings to 333.189 BTC, valued at ¥4.89 billion.

5. January 15 — South Korean authorities arrested President Yoon Suk-yeol, as reported by Yonhap News Agency.

6. January 15 — The U.S. December non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rose to 2.9%, marking the third consecutive month of growth, meeting expectations and reaching a new high since July 2024.

7. January 16 — Nasdaq submitted a Canary Litecoin ETF filing for regulatory review under 19B-4 procedures.

8. January 17 — Tether introduced the cross-chain stablecoin USDT0, built using the LayerZero OFT standard, to expand USDT functionality across new blockchains while maintaining its 1:1 peg to Ethereum’s USDT.

9. January 17 — Crypto wallet Phantom closed a $150 million Series C funding round at a valuation of $3 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and Paradigm, with participation from a16z and Variant.

2. Macroeconomic Highlights

1. January 15 — Outgoing SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated in an interview with Yahoo Finance that the SEC has never classified Bitcoin or Ethereum as securities.
2. January 16 — The SEC reached a settlement with crypto lending platform Plutus Lending, imposing a $1.65 million civil penalty for failing to register its Abra Earn product.
3. January 16 — According to CME’s “FedWatch,” following the CPI release, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in March rose to 28.2%, up from 23.2% the previous day.
4. January 16 — Analysts speculate that Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 and potential policy announcements could become pivotal catalysts for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices.
5. January 16 — Pension funds in the U.S., UK, and Australia have reportedly started allocating small portions of their portfolios to Bitcoin via funds and derivatives, signaling increased institutional adoption.

3. ETF Market Overview

From January 13–17:

• U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflows: $1.484 billion
• As of January 17, GBTC saw total outflows of $21.608 billion, holding $21.295 billion.
• IBIT holds $58.12 billion.
• Total U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market cap: $121.722 billion
• U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF net inflows: $205 million

Looking Ahead

1. Event Announcements

• February 18–20, 2025: CoinDesk will host Consensus Hong Kong.

2. Project Updates

1. GraFun is launching its Alpha Launch token issuance mechanism, with the first use case being the BNB Chain AI proxy token BAD Coin, scheduled for January 20, 2025.
2. Pump Science roadmap update:

• January 25: RIF and URO mice trials
• February 25: Collaboration with VitaDAO on new compounds
• March 25: Launch of supplements marketplace
• April 25: Commencement of human trials

3. AI-based Telegram gaming platform Catton AI will launch its token CATTON on January 26, 2025, integrating Wise Monkey IP to deploy AI NPCs.

3. Significant Events

1. January 20, 2025: Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential inauguration
2. January 22, 2025: Launch of the CBOJ ETF with downside risk protection on the Chicago Board Options Exchange

4. Token Unlocks

1. Bittensor (TAO): Unlocking 216,000 tokens on January 21, worth approximately $104 million.
2. Immutable (IMX): Unlocking 24.52 million tokens on January 24, worth $34.39 million.
3. Altlayer (ALT): Unlocking 195 million tokens on January 25, worth $20.95 million.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes “Play to Earn Web3” tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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