Written by GaryYang in November 2024, from Bangkok - Singapore - Hong Kong – Dubai

Following Trump’s election victory, the global socialrelations and financial assets experienced intense reactive fluctuations, witha butterfly effect rippling across various domains. On the surface, Bitcoin andemerging assets surged, gold plummeted, and the U.S. dollar regained partialcontrol over key assets. The U.S. established a new leadership team and evenset up a D.O.G.E. department. Global Degens and innovators regained much confidence,while Devcon event in the cyberpunk city reflected an indescribable frenzy inthe chaotic. Meanwhile, conflicts among various civilizations seemed to take abreather, as if benefiting temporarily from the situation. At its core, theglobal landscape is undergoing rapid and profound transformation, withexpectations for development interwoven with completely divergent ideologies. Atidal wave of seismic shifts in global production relations is on the horizon.Amid a trend of increasing entropy, the new era's institutions are beginning tobreach critical thresholds, emerging from chaos into a transformative phase.

In the days following Trump's election victory, many friendsasked a question: Why did both the U.S. stock market and the crypto marketsurge simultaneously? Does Trump represent more centralization ordecentralization? I responded with the following reply online:

Following the election victories of Trump and Musk,interests represented by the left-wing of the Nolan Chart have been curtailed.In recent years, extreme individual freedoms and the 'blue shift' have lostlegitimacy, giving way to right-wing forces emphasizing economic freedom.Recent feedback indicates that the 'red shift' agenda has indeed brought hopefor breaking through the current impasse.

Many have questioned why Bitcoin and an increasinglycentralized America, that in fact they represent the opposing concepts ofdecentralization and centralization, have both seen asset increases in recentdays. The reason is clear: this is a breakthrough into a pre-war phase oftemporary economic freedom after dismantling the constraints of left-wingdoctrinal liberalism.

This involves several issues and has also given rise to morefundamental questions:

The contradictory essence of the qualitative shift in thealternating positions of the two major U.S. political parties.

The transition of faith in the anchors of the threegenerations of financial systems.

The historical significance of Bitcoin and Crypto, andthe accompanying issues along with it.

Whether Trump and Musk represent the stance and interestsof the Crypto financial system.

The rise of the younger generation and the inevitability,challenges, and complexities of establishing a new production relationshipsystem.

The role of Societal Swarm AI in aiding the establishmentof new production relationship systems through a unique pathway ofdecentralization.

The primary and secondary contradictions in the currentglobal world and the chaotic cycles brought about by uncertainties.

I. Thecontradictory essence of the qualitative shift in the alternating positions ofthe two major U.S. political parties.

The positions and ideologies of the two major U.S. politicalparties represent different freedoms as outlined by the Nolan Chart. TheDemocratic Party, represented by the left wing and the color blue, advocatesfor personal freedom—a conditional and reciprocal freedom. Meanwhile, theRepublican Party, represented by the right wing and the color red, championseconomic freedom—an unconditional freedom of competition, which aligns moreclosely with the philosophy of Social Darwinism. Social Darwinism, due to itsextreme and easily criticized contradictions in the governance of Eastern andWestern civilizations during times of peace, is not widely endorsed by mostnations, including the United States. Conversely, the individual freedomsadvocated by the Democratic Party align with the needs of individuals forsurvival and the needs of governing bodies for stable development in a peacefulhistorical phase. As a result, this cultural ethos has been relatively dominantin the U.S. over the past 20 years.

In recent years, as the global development trajectoryunfolded, the maturing of the previous cycle's dominant industries—primarilythe computer and internet sectors—has gradually transitioned from liberalism topractical utilitarianism, and further evolved into collective authoritarianism(Note 1). This shift is manifested in the form of global corporate monopolies,intense competition, skyrocketing prices, industry saturation, and increasinglycomplex and expensive entry barriers. Under financial and political pressures,the individual freedom system has become rigid, evolving into an extreme formof personal freedom. Many view phenomena such as the recognition of hundreds ofgenders, the over-proliferation of marijuana, rising inflation, and therelentless capital-driven competition as extreme products of overdevelopedright-wing policies.

Elon Musk is a typical example of a left-winginnovation-oriented entrepreneur. His rejection by the Democratic Party—due tohis opposition to union establishment, which excluded Tesla from the greenenergy vehicle whitelist—led to NASA supporting a competitor to SpaceX. This,compounded by his eldest son's transition surgery, became the last straw, fullyexposing the ideological clash between the left and right values represented bythe two parties.

The fundamental contradiction behind the transformativeshift in the alternation of the U.S. parties' positions lies in the conflictbetween two opposing management ideologies: the overly rigid left-wing personalliberalism of the previous historical phase, which aligned with the interestsof the Federal Reserve and was represented by the Democratic Party; and theradical, breakthrough-oriented right-wing economic liberalism of the newcapitalist establishment, represented by the rising faction within the RepublicanParty. The results of the November 2024 election indicate that the latterperspective has gained dominant momentum, breaking the roof of the conservativeleft-wing forces and temporarily pushing history toward a rightward "blueshift" evolution.

This kind of evolution usually brings breakthrough dividendsonly for a brief period. Historically, such critical junctures rarelytransition peacefully into the next phase of major development. Typically,there are two possible outcomes: one, a strong counterattack from the opposingside plunges the situation into greater chaos; or two, the forces driving thebreakthrough must consolidate the changes and new trends by forming even morecentralized power or implementing increasingly extreme strategies, leading tothe opposite extreme. Whether the alliance between Trump and Musk more closelyresembles Caesar and Augustus moving toward the latter scenario, or if theymight unexpectedly align with the needs of the era and authentically assume therole of Lincolns for the digital information age, remains uncertain in 2024.Or, to put it more precisely, it is inherently a state of superposition.

II. Thetransition of faith in the anchors of the three generations of financialsystems.

In the days following Trump's election victory, the anchorassets of the three generations of financial systems—Gold, the U.S. Dollar, andBitcoin—underwent dramatic and rapid reversals. It can be said that the MarketSwarm AI's response speed still surpasses our imagination.

This point is quite straightforward. Gold represents thehistorical financial credit system based on the gold standard. The U.S. dollarsymbolizes the Bretton Woods system, anchored on the credibility of the UnitedStates. Bitcoin, on the other hand, represents a decentralized digitalfinancial credit system built on blockchain technology, which operates apartfrom centralized financial institutions; although still incomplete, it reflectsthe future of a decentralized, digitized financial ecosystem for the digitalinformation age. These three systems reached a temporary equilibrium in theyears leading up to Trump’s election victory. This balance was characterized bythe strengthening of gold, the relatively stable but slightly declining U.S.dollar, and the underperformance of Bitcoin. From 2023 to November 2024, goldsurged from below $2,000 to $2,800. Meanwhile, the global influence of the U.S.dollar declined by 3% year-over-year. Bitcoin, following its halving, struggledto maintain momentum. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs resulted in increasedindustry concentration, reduced innovation, and a decrease in the overallmarket capitalization of the crypto sector.

Just one week after Trump’s election victory, the value andcontrol of these three anchor assets underwent significant and rapidadjustments. This shift is evident not only in their individual prices but alsoin the changes in correlations and forward-looking trends among them and withother cross-category assets (Note 2). These three anchor assets represent the"old, middle, and young" generations of financial systems, eachsymbolizing the consensus of different historical periods.

Gold: Its era spans from 600 BC to AD 1944, symbolizing thefoundation of the gold standard.
U.S. Dollar: Its dominance began in AD 1944 with the Bretton Woods system andcontinues to the present day.
Bitcoin: The post-election breakthroughs signify the ongoing growth of adecentralized new financial value system in the mid-phase of the digitalinformation era.

As of mid-November 2024, the total market capitalization ofthe crypto market approaches $3.2 trillion, with Bitcoin alone nearing $1.9trillion. This places Bitcoin less than double the market capitalization ofNvidia, which stands at $3.5 trillion.

III. Thehistorical significance of Bitcoin and Crypto, and the accompanying issuesalong with it.

The consensus on Bitcoin and Crypto representing thedecentralized management system of intelligent contract structures for thefuture society is steadily growing. This historical significance has seen anotable shift, especially after Trump’s election victory, with signs of atransition from quantitative change to qualitative change.

In his July 2024 speech in Nashville, Trump mentionedseveral actions he planned to take if elected:

1.Dismiss Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC Chair;

2.Establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for theU.S. government;

3.Ensure the U.S. government retains 100% of its Bitcoinholdings;

4.Guarantee that no CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency)will be introduced during his tenure;

5.End the Biden-Harris administration's anti-cryptocampaign and improve the environment for cryptocurrency innovation;

6.Propel Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to unprecedentedlevels;

7.Support the freedom and sovereignty represented byBitcoin, ensuring it remains free from U.S. government coercion and control.

From the short-term realities following Trump’s electionvictory in November 2024, aside from the continuous surge in Bitcoin andcryptocurrency prices, there are clear signs that other points on the checklistare also being implemented one by one. This acceleration process willundoubtedly bring substantial changes to the distribution of interests, thefoundations of trust, market transactions, and the essence of social productionrelationships. It can be said that Trump and Musk are persistently pushing historyto drive pivotal changes in both the United States and the world.

Although the theory of the approaching singularity makes thelogic of exponential curve development easy to understand, excessively rapidand pivotal changes—especially those involving shifts in significant interestsand the management of production relationships—are bound to provoke conflictsand backlash at various levels. The temporary calm of the "eye of thestorm" at the end of 2024 will likely be short-lived. Many power entitiesand interest groups are in a state of being caught off guard, scrambling toadjust while grappling with heightened uncertainty and chaos.

Even though the future financial and social systemsenvisioned by Bitcoin and Crypto hold distinct and powerful legitimacy in thelong run, the accompanying problems and contradictions are too numerous to beresolved instantaneously at this historical juncture. As Su Shi remarked toWang Anshi during the late Northern Song dynasty of China, the reformsadvocated by Wang Anshi in collaboration with Emperor Huizong of Song were notmisunderstood because they were more advanced, but because they disrupted too manyentrenched interest structures, making them unsupportable. Clearly, the jointactions of Trump and Musk are far more radical than those of Emperor Huizongand Wang Anshi, and the accompanying issues and consequences are likely to beeven more intense. The world now faces even greater uncertainty and escalatingchaos.

The strong rise of Bitcoin and Crypto following Trump’selection victory brings numerous accompanying issues. Here are a few importantaspects as examples:

1.It fundamentally impacts and changes the definitions andoperational methods of payment settlements, transaction scenarios, assetmanagement, credit regulation, and even the economic and value systems in theU.S. and globally;

2.It conflicts with the current and planned economic andfiscal policies of various nations, as well as the strategies for managingsocial production;

3.These two points lead to differing decisions and solutionsamong countries when facing these issues, resulting in the escalation ofcivilizational conflicts (Note 4) and further polarization between democraticand collective ideologies globally.

IV. WhetherTrump and Musk represent the stance and interests of the Crypto financialsystem.

Trump and Musk currently hold a complex superposition ofpositions, making it impossible to directly determine their fundamental stancebased on surface appearances.

For both Trump and Musk, while they share characteristicsaligned with right-wing positions, emphasizing economic freedom as a path to self-realization,Trump tends to exhibit a stronger inclination toward pragmatism. Hedemonstrates a readiness to leverage tools and trends available during thedevelopment process to align with his goals.

Therefore, when it comes to future global finance andCrypto, Trump's approach is more bottom-up, following the logic of "Ifthis can serve me, then I will choose it." This mindset has been made veryclear in his past speeches:

“I'm tooold to worry about who likes me and who dislikes me. I have more importantthings to do. If you love me, I love you. If you support me, I support you. Ifyou hate me, I don’t care. Life goes on with or without you.”

In other words, from a future-oriented perspective at thisstage, it cannot be said that Trump consistently represents the stance andinterests of the Crypto financial system. Rather, it can be said that Trump hasleveraged this trend to achieve his own interim goals, thereby alsoaccelerating the rapid development of this trend.

Musk's situation is somewhat different. Compared to Trump,he is more idealistic, following the logic of "The future of the worldshould look like this, and I stand with that future," leaning more towarda top-down approach. Of course, he remains pragmatic as well. This duality isreflected in his choice to name his company in honor of Nikola Tesla and to gobeyond Tesla, achieving a fusion of ideals and reality.

On this basis, Musk has a more idealistic vision of thefuture in his mind. Starting from the premise that future productionrelationships will be more efficient, the governance of Crypto through smartcontracts, decentralized financial issuance, and decentralized collectivedecision-making all hold clear legitimacy. This also explains why, followingTrump’s election victory, the D.O.G.E. department was immediately establishedwith Musk appointed as its head, as well as Musk’s stance on abolishing the IRSin favour of automated tax filing. In comparison, Musk’s path toself-realization, infused with a touch of idealism, allows him to more closelyalign with the stance and interests of the Crypto financial system than Trump,even if only slightly.

Of course, this representation and promotion are also basedon Musk’s own planned interests. Like any other institution or individual, itis challenging for Musk to operate and develop from a completely selflessperspective—at least not at this stage. In the superposition of Augustus andLincoln, if Musk succeeds in completely escaping the current counterpressuresto enter the next phase, and if he can then transcend history by relinquishingthe personal glorification of "honoring himself" while continuing topromote the development of decentralized financial and social systems, he couldbecome a historical turning point. In that case, it could be said that he trulyrepresents the stance and interests of the new system. This is difficult, butnot impossible.

V. Therise of the younger generation and the inevitability, challenges, andcomplexities of establishing a new production relationship system.

Regardless of whether Musk ultimately fulfills thehistorical turning point task with grace, he has successfully represented thetransitional bridge between the pre-singularity and post-singularitygenerations. The new generation, increasingly embracing a Degen mindset, isrising along this transitional pathway.

After Trump’s election victory, from the points discussedabove—the qualitative shift in dynamics caused by the alternating positions ofthe two major U.S. political parties, the transition of faith in the anchors ofthe three generations of financial systems, the further growth of Bitcoin andCrypto as representatives of decentralized management systems for futuresocieties based on smart contracts, and the examination of differingperspectives and challenges through the examples of Trump and Musk—it is alreadyevident that the trend toward establishing a new system is clear, and theissues and opposing stances are highly pronounced.

The D.O.G.E. department emerged out of nowhere with analmost comical perspective. While seemingly unbelievable, it sharply highlightsone of the biggest problems in today’s world: the irreconcilableinefficiency of production in the current global economic and socialenvironment. At its core, this stems from the irreconcilable issues inglobal economic and trade exchanges, which in turn lead to irreconcilableconflicts between different social civilizations. The entropy increase inproduction, employment, and financial governance across nations becomesirreversible. Meanwhile, the peaceful environment fostered by Keynesianeconomic theories is nearing its end.

Interestingly, when such fundamental contradictions arise,almost all nations and entities tend to revert to traditional managementmethods characteristic of their own civilizations, rather than taking the riskof adopting newer, more efficient methods. This phenomenon was both predictedand reasonably explained in Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations, andit is easy to understand—taking a relatively familiar path entails lower risksand is more favourable for maintaining stability from a managerial perspective.It is precisely for this reason that significant resistance arises during theestablishment of new systems, introducing complexity and nonlinearity to thecourse of historical development.

In the current global context, these traditional managementmethods are more likely to occur within the major civilizational blocks of theNorthern Hemisphere. Conversely, some sub-civilizations and regions in theSouthern Hemisphere, where the strength of traditional civilizations is lessconcentrated (Note 5), are poised to become the fertile ground for theestablishment of new civilizations and emerging systems of productionrelationships.

VI. Therole of Societal Swarm AI in aiding the establishment of new productionrelationship systems through a unique pathway of decentralization.

The first major post-election Crypto industry event, Devcon,was held in Bangkok, Thailand. Known as one of the most cyberpunk-style cities,its charm is matched by its chaos, with relentless traffic jams from dawn todusk. Neon lights and the urban congestion create a fertile environment for therapid interaction and collaboration of decentralized civilizations, earning itthe nickname "Sin City."

Here, Degens and Digital Nomads build DeFi infrastructure,discuss techniques for rapid launches and farming Meme tokens, and ride thewave of FOMO. In an unregulated setting, these activities, coupled with theemergence of AI, quickly integrate into the blockchain and protocol ethos. Thisfusion contributes to the formation of a decentralized social and economicmanagement system driven by smart contracts, breaking away from Keynesianeconomic theories—akin to millions collaboratively drafting a new Code ofHammurabi. To some extent, Bangkok, compared to Singapore under Token2049'sinfluence or the opulent glow of Dubai, embodies a more "nativefeature" of the emerging system of production relationships, representingits unrefined yet authentic qualities.

When discussing the characteristics of this era and makingparadigm comparisons, I often reference the Renaissance at the end of theMiddle Ages, while Cyberpunk Bangkok just serves as the Baroque of thisRenaissance. The iterative evolution of the Degen social collectiveconsciousness, in such a diverse and open environment, creates rapid collisionsof neural ideas, giving rise to collective intelligence—Swarm AI.

The openness of the environment has a remarkable impact onthe evolution of such collective intelligence. Perhaps even the SolanaFoundation themselves did not anticipate the extent of the Meme explosiondriven by pump.fun within two weeks following Trump's election victory.Seemingly chaotic and speculative Meme launches are quietly siphoning liquidityfrom CeFi and TradFi, altering the logic of CEX and VC projects, and resistingand reconstructing a more DeFi-native new order. All the PVP players carried outday and night are, in fact, the foundational units of microfinance in the newsystem, the basic cells of the next-generation economy, and the cellularautomata of the new financial structure. With the continuous evolution andmaturation of AI Agent and AI Validator concepts, coupled with CZ's recentadvocacy of DeSci as a catalyst, providing direction to the seeming chaos ofMemes, the evolutionary development in the coming years is expected to beimmeasurable.

The grassroots iteration of the emerging productionrelationship system has never truly slowed down. Trump’s election victory actedlike a spark, igniting this long-accumulated catalytic reaction.

VII. Theprimary and secondary contradictions in the current global world and thechaotic cycles brought about by uncertainties.

In November 2024, the world stands at a significanthistorical juncture, teetering on the brink of heightened uncertainty, deeperchaos, and the establishment of new systems. The tension and oppositionresulting from Trump's election victory may serve as the final blow todismantle the existing global consensus.

What is the primary contradiction in today's global world?Samuel Huntington, in 1994, pointed out that it lies in the "clash ofcivilizations" among different cultures—a fundamental understanding Ideeply respect and agree with. However, after witnessing the stark contrastsbetween civilizations and development around the world in 2024, the dramaticelection victories of Trump and Musk, and the unimaginable uncertainties andchaotic expectations that follow, it becomes clear that the contradictionsextend far beyond this.

The primary contradiction in today's global world is:

The top-down approach advocates the management ofproductivity and means of production through power, starting from the originalcollective interests of nations and established interest groups, within theKeynesian-based global economic system established after World War II as afoundation for peace and coexistence, to preserve and amplify their advantagesin competition and conflict with other entities;

Versus

The bottom-up approach advocates the restructuring andgrowth of productivity and means of production through alternative frameworks,starting from the emerging individual interests of people and new interestgroups, within the new global decentralized blockchain-based smart contractfinancial system, to bypass and dismantle established advantages and seek newopportunities for reconstruction and growth.

In fact, as of the end of 2024, under the current globallandscape, most nations and interest groups still operate within a semi-feudal,semi-centralized state-capitalist environment. The current primarycontradiction is driving a transition toward a semi-centralizedstate-capitalist, semi-decentralized digital information managementenvironment.

Under this primary contradiction, the clash of civilizationsand the conflict between AI-driven digital systems and humanity are temporarilysubordinated as secondary contradictions at this stage. Before Trump's electionvictory, conflicts such as the potential Thucydides Trap and the potential newCold War were still characterized as primary contradictions. However, followingTrump's victory, it is evident that these conflicts will gradually recede intosecondary contradictions, including some civilizational conflicts in the MiddleEast, which will also temporarily become secondary. Replacing them is this newprimary contradiction. Of course, within the 21st century, the conflict betweenAI-driven digital systems and humanity may escalate, surpassing and becomingthe next primary contradiction, but it will not happen in the present.

For this entirely new clash of civilizations between thetop-down and bottom-up forces, the cycle of uncertainty and chaos has only justbegun. Many people believe that the uncertainty and chaos brought by thepandemic from 2020 to 2023 have come to an end, but in reality, it was merelythe prelude to a much larger epoch. Under the paradigm of this new era,plagues, wars, famines, and deaths have their own rhythm. What we must do isnot to avoid or deny them, but to recognize, confront, adapt, and bring aboutchange.

Author:  Gary Yang 楊歌

Date: November 21^st,2024

Notes:

Note 1: Detailed in the February 2020 article The Gearsof Society, the cyclical process of global historical development isdivided into four stages: idealism, liberalism, pragmatism, and collectivism.

Note 2: Before and after Trump's election victory inNovember 2024, the correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold shifteddramatically from +0.85 to -0.89, setting a historical record.

Note 3: The Wang Anshi Reform was a collaborative reformmovement between the emperor and his ministers during China's Northern Songdynasty, starting in 1069. It ultimately ended in failure.

Note 4: The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking ofWorld Order is a book by American political scientist Samuel P. Huntington,first published in 1996.

Note 5: Refers to regions where the integration of diversecivilizations is relatively balanced, but no dominant civilization isoverwhelmingly strong. Examples include Southeast Asia, Central and SouthAmerica, Australia and Oceania, parts of Africa, and parts of the Middle East.